Tariffs, shelter costs, services inflation—what’s really driving prices in the U.S. economy right now? In this week’s Carson Take 5, Ryan and Sonu break down the latest inflation data and what it means for investors, the Federal Reserve, and the markets heading into the second half of 2025. From dissecting where tariff-driven inflation is showing up, to understanding why core inflation remains mixed, we’ll cover:
- Why news headlines make inflation look soft—when some categories are heating up
- The hidden impact of tariffs on household goods, toys, and appliances
- Shelter inflation is finally easing, helping to pull down overall numbers
- Airfares and hotel prices are falling fast, signaling soft demand
- What all this means for The Fed’s next move on interest rates
- The stock market’s resilience—earnings are still solid and all-time highs are in reach
Key Takeaways:
- Inflation is a mixed bag: tariff-driven goods are rising while services (like travel) are softening.
- Shelter disinflation is finally kicking in after years of lagging data.
- The Fed is stuck in a tough spot—cut rates or risk falling behind inflation?
- Despite economic softness, stocks are tracking near record highs, supported by earnings and a solid labor market.
- Diversification remains key, due to ongoing policy and market uncertainty.
